While reading the Wall Street Journal this morning I ran across this article about the Florida primary race (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577190824119921462.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond). I found it interesting that a journalist had finally come to certain realizations that Romney, despite Gingrich's recent rises in the polls, has what it takes to win a national race. After his not so surprising win in South Carolina many TV pundits and other talking heads were all for Newt. He's going to be the nominee and the next president; however those same people are now having to eat their own words. As the more moderate and mainstream purple voters in Florida take to the polls Romney has seen a pick up in his numbers and Newt has seen a drop in his. The article took a look at many leading polls and said that they all gave Romney an eight to sixteen point lead in Florida. after a win in Florida the press will quickly swing back to focusing on the Romney camp as the lack of debates, and multi-state primaries weed out the candidates with less money and weaker organization than the Romney juggernaut.
The author also rightly noted that the harsh note of this campaign has caused the Gingrich campaign to fall into defense. Whenever this happens not only does it help the candidate doing the attacking, but those attack ads give our 24-hour news machine sound bites to throw around and analyze. When a not particularly strong candidate like Newt is attacked by a more established candidate it hurts, but thanks to the media those ads are magnified and hashed out over national television for several hours a day and can cause insurmountable damage. If I'm right Romney will win Florida with at least a twelve point margin. After this we will see many candidates start to drop out of the race, probably helping Romney even further.
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